The week ahead: midterms, Apple and AMD earnings, and the October jobs report

The week of Monday, November 2 through Friday, November 6 brings a busy mix: the US midterm elections, another round of technology earnings and fresh readings on hiring. Friday's jobs report caps a run of surveys that should help show whether businesses are still adding workers while managing higher costs. All times below are Eastern Standard Time (EST). US clocks move back on Sunday, November 1.

Where things stand going in

Stocks enter November after a rough finish to October. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580.07, the Nasdaq Composite at 25,437.00 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 51,770.31. For the week ended October 30, they lost 0.57%, 2.00% and 0.85%, respectively. Those weekly moves are different from Friday's steeper daily declines.

The late-week selloff put the cost of artificial-intelligence investment back in focus. The coming earnings reports offer a different set of tests: consumer demand at Apple, software growth at Palantir and chip demand at AMD, Arm and Qualcomm. Oil supply risks also remain part of the picture. See our Friday Dusk Ledger and Chain, Crude & Chips.

Monday, November 2

• 9:45 AM - The final October S&P Global US manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), another survey of factory business conditions.
• 10:00 AM - The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases its October manufacturing survey; the Census Bureau publishes September construction spending. The factory survey gives a fresh view of orders, employment and prices; construction spending measures dollars spent on building projects.
• 2:00 PM - The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Watch whether banks report tighter lending standards or weaker demand for loans.
• 3:00 PM - Treasury financing estimates, ahead of Wednesday's quarterly refunding announcement.
• After the close - Apple and Palantir report. Both have calls scheduled for 5:00 PM. Apple's outlook matters as the holiday selling season approaches; Palantir gives another read on demand for AI software.
• 10:30 PM Monday in New York - The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its policy decision and economic forecasts. That is 2:30 PM Tuesday, November 3 in Sydney.

Tuesday, November 3

• All day - US midterm elections. Results can take time to settle, so an early lead is not the same as a final outcome. The market question is how the result changes the outlook for taxes, spending and regulation, rather than whether one party's win guarantees a particular stock-market response.
• Before the open - Shopify reports, with a call at 8:30 AM. Pfizer also reports that morning, with a call at 10:00 AM. They add retail-commerce and drug-company results to a week dominated by technology headlines.
• 10:00 AM - September JOLTS job openings and September factory orders. JOLTS also covers hiring, quits and layoffs, which can tell a different story from the openings headline.
• About 4:30 PM - The American Petroleum Institute's weekly petroleum inventory report, the industry survey that comes before Wednesday's government figures.
• After the close - AMD reports. Its results and outlook will be another test of demand for AI and data-center chips after the recent semiconductor selloff.

Wednesday, November 4

• Before the open - Uber reports, with its call scheduled for 8:00 AM.
• 8:15 AM - ADP's October private-sector employment report. It is a separate measure from Friday's government jobs report, not an advance copy of it.
• 8:30 AM - September US international trade figures. The Treasury releases its quarterly refunding announcement at the same time, setting out its borrowing plans.
• 9:45 AM - The final October S&P Global US services and composite PMIs, ahead of the separate ISM services survey.
• 10:00 AM - October ISM services survey. Read its hiring and prices measures alongside the overall activity number, especially with payrolls two days away.
• 10:30 AM - The Energy Information Administration's weekly petroleum report. Compare crude inventories with gasoline, distillate supplies and refinery activity rather than treating one crude-stock change as the whole oil story.
• After the close - Arm and Qualcomm report. Their results broaden the chip picture beyond a single AI accelerator supplier. Qualcomm's call is scheduled for 4:45 PM Eastern; Arm's is at 5:00 PM.

Thursday, November 5

• 7:00 AM - The Bank of England announces its rate decision and publishes its Monetary Policy Report. That is noon in London. The vote split and the new forecasts can matter as much as the headline decision.
• 8:30 AM - Weekly US jobless claims and the first estimate of third-quarter productivity and costs. Claims give a timely view of layoffs. Productivity and unit labor costs help show how output and pay are moving relative to each other.
• Earnings - ConocoPhillips reports before the open, with a noon call. Airbnb reports after the close, with a 5:00 PM call. Energy production and travel bookings give readers a look beyond the chip companies.

Friday, November 6

• 8:30 AM - The October Employment Situation report: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment and average hourly earnings. Look at the revisions to earlier months as well as the new jobs number. A softer hiring figure paired with firm wage growth sends a different message from weakness across the whole report.
• 10:00 AM - The University of Michigan's preliminary November consumer sentiment survey. Inflation expectations are worth reading alongside confidence, especially while energy costs remain a concern.
• 3:00 PM - September consumer credit. This gives another view of household borrowing after the morning's labor-market and confidence reports.

What to watch

• Jobs, not one headline. JOLTS, ADP, claims and payrolls measure different parts of the labor market. Their direction together is more useful than treating one report as a complete answer. Our report on Friday's Fed remarks explains why policymakers are still weighing inflation against incoming data.
• The AI bill meets another earnings round. Watch the outlook and cash spending as well as sales. A business can report growth while investors become less willing to pay for it. See the Friday market close for the starting point.
• Oil supply fears and inventory evidence. Tuesday's API report and Wednesday's EIA report arrive against continuing supply risks. They are different surveys and need not match. Our latest oil and chips sidebar separates the supply story from the daily price snapshot.
• Election results and Treasury borrowing. Keep the actual result, policy proposals and enacted changes separate. Treasury's financing plans add another scheduled event for bond investors during an already crowded week.

Company and agency schedules can change, so check the source before you act.

Educational information only. Not personal investment advice.