Inflation expectations hold steady as job-market concerns rise
The New York Fed's October survey shows unchanged inflation expectations but a mixed outlook for employment.
Americans' inflation expectations held steady in October, while their views of the job market became more uneasy in some respects, according to the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations released Monday. Median expected inflation remained at 3.9% one year ahead, 3.3% three years ahead and 3.0% five years ahead.
The average perceived probability that unemployment would be higher a year from now rose 1.4 percentage points to 45.3%, the highest reading since April 2020. That is a measure of respondents' expectations, not a forecast that the unemployment rate itself will reach 45.3%.
A mixed employment picture
The perceived probability of losing one's job over the next 12 months rose 0.4 percentage point to 13.9%. At the same time, the perceived chance of finding work after a job loss rose 0.4 percentage point to 46.5%, its highest level since November 2025.
Those results capture an important distinction: households can become more worried about unemployment overall while also seeing better chances of finding another job themselves. Neither reading is a count of actual layoffs or hiring.
The survey was conducted from October 1 through October 31 among a rotating panel of roughly 1,300 household heads. Inflation expectations are consumers' views about future prices, not the measured inflation rate. Monday's unchanged readings therefore do not establish that current inflation has stopped rising.
