A November rebound meets the next earnings and manufacturing tests
Five things to know before the open on Monday, November 2.
Good morning. November opens with a recovery attempt, not a clean break from October's worries. U.S. stock-index futures are firmer, oil is falling, and technology shares are trying to steady after a rough end to last week. The question for the cash session is whether it can survive another round of earnings scrutiny.
Today's key event: ISM manufacturing at 10 a.m. ET. Apple earnings follow after the closing bell.
1. Futures turn higher, with the AI debate still open
Reuters' 7:01 a.m. ET snapshot put S&P 500 E-mini futures up 0.46%, Nasdaq-100 E-minis up 0.74% and Dow E-minis up 0.49%.
Keep the session labels straight: these are futures, not the cash S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite or Dow closing results. Investors are still questioning the economics of the AI buildout. A firmer morning does not answer whether the companies spending heavily on it will generate the returns investors expect.
2. Oil retreats while diplomacy remains unfinished
Crude fell more than 4% early Monday as hopes grew that diplomatic efforts involving Iran and Qatar could ease disruption to Middle Eastern supplies. That is a change in the market's pricing of risk, not confirmation that a peace agreement has been completed.
Reuters reported, citing an official briefed on the talks, that a draft proposal was circulating and that a follow-up meeting was possible. Iran's foreign minister said a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz depended on several U.S. conditions, according to AP. Conditions being discussed are not conditions already accepted.
Our First Light oil report separates the earlier price snapshot from the diplomatic claims. Lower crude futures do not establish an immediate fall at the gasoline pump.
3. Apple takes the earnings spotlight after the bell
Apple is scheduled to report later Monday, with AMD's results due later this week. These are upcoming reports, not results available this morning.
The broader backdrop is the same earnings debate: investors want to see what technology companies earn from their spending, not simply how large the budgets have become. Apple's report may offer another test of demand and profitability, but its eventual numbers should be judged against the actual release rather than a pre-open expectation.
4. The overseas picture is mixed, not one global rally
South Korean stocks gained while Australian shares declined. The region's mixed performance is a useful check on the temptation to read higher U.S. futures as a worldwide all-clear. Different markets and companies are responding differently.
European equities were close to flat earlier in the session. Those are dated observations, not a guarantee of where Europe will trade at the U.S. open. For the earlier overnight picture, see today's First Light markets report.
5. Manufacturing data today, midterms tomorrow
The U.S. calendar lists the final October manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET, according to TradingCharts. ISM's October manufacturing report follows at 10 a.m. ET. Neither result was available for this pre-open edition.
Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections are also in focus. We are not treating a forecast of congressional control as an election result or a mechanical forecast for stocks. For the fuller dated schedule, read this week's Week Ahead.
Before the opening bell
There is no need to force every headline into one explanation. An earnings release, an economic survey and an election each answer different questions. Watch the information itself first, then check how prices respond. A headline-driven move is not the same as a durable change in company earnings.
The useful distinction this morning is between relief and resolution. Futures are recovering, but earnings questions remain. Oil is lower, but negotiations remain unfinished. Manufacturing data are scheduled, but have not been released. Treat each new result as new information rather than proof that the morning's first market move must persist.
