A recovery attempt meets Nvidia risk and an inflation-heavy week
Five things to know before Monday's open: futures, Nvidia, China's prices, oil and the U.S. data calendar.
Good morning. U.S. stock futures are pointing higher before Monday's opening bell, but Nvidia is moving the other way. China's latest inflation figures show a widening gap between industrial costs and household prices, while oil traders continue to balance hopes for diplomacy against shipping risks. These are pre-open indications, not the result of the coming cash session.
1. Futures attempt a recovery after a rough week
Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures were higher in early Monday trading as investors returned to a market shaken by last week's technology selloff. The rebound comes with questions about AI investment, financing and the effect of possible changes in regulation still unresolved.
The overseas picture is uneven. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 2.33% higher and Taiwan's Taiex added 4.94%, but South Korea's Kospi finished about 0.8% lower. Our First Light report on Asia's rebound separates those closing gains from the earlier, larger intraday moves.
2. Nvidia's inquiry creates a company-specific test
Nvidia shares fell in premarket trading after the board announced an independent investigation into reports that chief executive Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. A committee of independent directors is working with outside counsel.
The board says it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised, and that Huang supports the review and will cooperate. Those statements do not amount to completed findings. For investors, the question is how the uncertainty affects confidence in the company's leadership without assuming an outcome that has not been announced.
3. China's factory and consumer prices diverge
China's producer price index rose 5.7% from a year earlier in October, while consumer inflation slowed to 0.7%. Factory-gate prices rose 0.7% from September; consumer prices were unchanged on the month. Consumer inflation excluding food and energy eased to 0.8% from 1%.
The figures show why industrial cost pressure and household inflation are not interchangeable. Lower food prices helped offset more expensive gasoline in the consumer basket. Our report on the October data explains the distinction and why it is not, by itself, a signal of an imminent policy change.
4. Oil falls, but an agreement is still a separate test
Crude prices traded lower Monday, with Brent below $100 a barrel, after President Donald Trump said fresh U.S. attacks on Iran were highly unlikely if negotiations progressed. The condition matters: diplomatic optimism is not a signed agreement or evidence that normal shipping has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a less encouraging assessment of talks, while reports of vessel incidents kept supply risks in view. First Light's oil report sets out the competing signals without treating unconfirmed damage accounts as a verified total.
5. Today's wholesale report comes before the week's inflation tests
The Census Bureau schedules September's wholesale sales and inventories report for 10:00 AM ET today. It is still ahead of this edition, so there is no result to report at 8:00 AM. The distinction between inventories and sales will matter more than either number viewed alone.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules October's consumer price index for Tuesday at 8:30 AM ET and producer prices for Friday at 8:30 AM ET. Those releases will give investors fresh evidence on inflation; neither is available yet. Before then, the opening question is simpler: can Monday's recovery attempt survive regular trading while Nvidia remains under pressure?
