An inflation test meets stronger chip sales and Main Street price pressure
Five things before Tuesday's open: CPI, TSMC, Infineon, small businesses and CoreWeave's earnings test.
Good morning. Monday's stock rebound has carried into overseas markets, but U.S. futures are more mixed as investors await the next inflation report. Fresh chip-company figures show strong demand, while a small-business survey points to renewed price pressure. Here are five things to know before the opening bell.
1. CPI is still ahead, not part of the recovery yet
The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules October's consumer price index and real earnings figures for 8:30 AM ET, half an hour after this edition. There is no October CPI result to report here yet.
Dow futures were higher in early trading, Nasdaq-100 futures lower and S&P 500 futures near flat. European shares advanced and oil prices fell as investors assessed prospects for U.S.-Iran talks. Those indications can change quickly when the inflation data arrive. Our First Light global markets report covers the overseas rebound, while Monday's Dusk Ledger records the previous cash session.
2. TSMC reports a sharp rise in October sales
TSMC reported consolidated October revenue of NT$586.89 billion, up 59.7% from a year earlier and 14.7% from September. Revenue for January through October reached NT$4,485.62 billion, up 43.3% from the same period last year.
The monthly release gives investors another reading on semiconductor demand. It is a revenue report, not a monthly profit statement or a breakdown of how much growth came from individual customers or AI products.
3. Infineon's power outlook brings investment with it
Infineon forecasts fiscal 2027 revenue of about €20 billion, with sales from power supplies for data centers approaching €4 billion. It expects more than 20% total revenue growth, after reporting fiscal 2026 revenue of €16.353 billion.
The company plans €3 billion to €3.5 billion of investment and forecasts free cash flow of about €1.8 billion. That combination matters: stronger sales expectations do not remove the cost of expanding capacity. Our Infineon report separates completed results from management's new forecasts.
4. Small-business uncertainty falls, but price plans rise
NFIB's October Optimism Index edged down 0.1 point to 97.8, while its Uncertainty Index fell 6 points to 84. A seasonally adjusted net 37% of owners planned to raise prices over the next three months, up 6 points and the highest reading since July 2022.
The survey describes October conditions, before last week's midterm election, so the change in uncertainty is not a measured response to the result. Owners' selling-price plans are also not the same measure as consumer inflation. Our NFIB report explains that distinction and the continuing hiring difficulties.
5. CoreWeave is the after-close AI test
CoreWeave is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after today's market close, with its third-quarter earnings call set for 5:00 PM ET. The results are not available at this edition's publication time.
The report will give investors a fresh chance to assess demand for AI computing alongside the cost of delivering it. Revenue, capacity delivery, investment and financing belong in the same reading; a sales growth figure alone cannot answer all of those questions. First comes the 8:30 AM inflation release, then a regular trading session, then CoreWeave's results.
