The week ahead: inflation and the next test of AI spending

The final monthly report covers wholesale sales and inventories. Read the two together: a stockpile increase alongside weak sales can mean something different from inventories rising to meet demand. The figures also help fill out the picture of third-quarter activity.

This opens the week's three-part refunding. Watch the yield and the strength of demand, then compare them with Tuesday's longer-maturity auction after CPI. Auction results are a check on demand for government debt, not a stand-alone forecast for stocks.

The company reports its fiscal second quarter. Watch bookings, the release calendar and management's outlook. The report offers a consumer-entertainment check alongside a week heavy on AI infrastructure.

Third-quarter results arrive Monday evening; the discussion follows Tuesday at 1:00 PM. Watch production, spending and the cash outlook, rather than assuming the day's oil-price move tells the whole company story.

Newsquawk's consensus expects headline CPI to rise 0.3% from September and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, to rise 0.2%. September's increases were 0.6% and 0.3%. Read shelter, services and goods prices as well as the headline. A softer energy-driven reading would not necessarily mean price pressure is easing everywhere. A hotter core reading could strengthen the case for tighter policy; a cooler one could ease that concern. Neither guarantees a market direction.

BLS says it will not publish October 2026 twelve-month changes for indexes without October 2025 data, because the shutdown prevented collection of those earlier observations. Missing annual comparisons are not zero inflation. The monthly readings and the details of the report deserve extra attention. Real earnings, released at the same time, show how pay is moving after inflation.

The monthly outlook updates forecasts for energy supply, demand and prices. Compare revisions to the demand and supply assumptions, rather than treating a price forecast as a promise. This is a forecast report, separate from Thursday's weekly inventory release.

The Treasury sale follows the morning inflation report. Watch whether demand for longer-term debt holds up after CPI. Separately, Occidental discusses the results released Monday evening.

The account of the October 28 policy decision can show how officials weighed inflation and growth. It describes the earlier decision, not a new rate announcement. Canadian-dollar and Canadian bond investors have a reason to read the discussion rather than just the headline.

The AI cloud provider's call is a test of demand for computing capacity and the cost of supplying it. Watch the revenue outlook, capital spending, funding needs and how quickly contracted business becomes operating capacity. Strong demand and heavy financing needs can exist at the same time.

NYSE's regular equity session is scheduled to run. SIFMA recommends a full market close for US dollar-denominated fixed-income securities, including Treasuries and corporate bonds; individual firms decide whether to follow it. Do not mistake an open stock market for a normal trading day across every asset class.

The producer group's November report is scheduled for Wednesday. Watch changes to its supply and demand outlook, then compare them with Tuesday's EIA outlook and Friday's IEA report. These are different forecasts with different assumptions, not interchangeable estimates.

The release is at 7:00 AM in London. It measures economic output during July-September. The mix of services, production and other activity matters as well as the overall growth rate, especially when investors are weighing the balance between inflation and weaker activity.

Another AI cloud report follows CoreWeave. Watch available computing capacity, planned spending, customer demand and funding. Compare the two companies' timelines and definitions rather than assuming every announced project is already generating revenue.

The Globe and Mail calendar expects 194,000 initial claims for the week ended November 7. This is a forecast, not a result. Read continuing claims and the trend alongside the new-filings headline; a single weekly move is not the whole employment picture.

The Globe and Mail calendar expects a 3.0% monthly decline in the annualized sales rate. The release covers completed sales of existing homes, not new construction. Watch the balance between sales, prices and available homes for a clearer view of the housing market.

The main EIA release moves from its usual Wednesday slot to Thursday at noon; additional tables follow at 2:00 PM. Compare crude stocks with gasoline, distillates and refinery activity. A crude draw alone does not establish that end-user demand is strengthening.

The week's longest-maturity sale follows CPI and the ten-year auction. Demand and the awarded yield give another reading on investors' appetite for long-term debt. Keep the result separate from any unrelated move in stocks.

The monthly Treasury statement reports receipts, spending and the deficit or surplus. It is an account of government cash flows, not a new spending plan. Watch the mix of receipts and outlays before drawing a conclusion from the bottom-line balance.

Cisco reports its fiscal first quarter and Applied Materials its fiscal fourth quarter. The calls bring networking and chip-production equipment into the AI discussion. Watch management's demand outlook, orders where reported, and spending plans. A cloud provider's expansion budget and an equipment supplier's sales need not show up in the same quarter.

The scheduled release is 10:00 AM in Paris. Compare its supply, demand and inventory outlook with the EIA and OPEC reports earlier in the week. Differences in assumptions are worth reading before drawing a conclusion from any one forecast.

Newsquawk's consensus expects headline PPI to rise 0.4% from September and PPI excluding food and energy to rise 0.3%. PPI tracks selling prices received by domestic producers; it is not the same basket as CPI. The details can add to the picture of price pressure after Tuesday's consumer report, but a change in producer prices does not automatically pass through one-for-one to shoppers.